BoE vs Fed: who steers the US curve?
UK minus US 10y (BoE IUDMNZC − FRED DGS10) vs US 10y minus 2y (FRED DGS10 − DGS2), daily from Jun 2022, bp. latest Oct 15 2026: UK-US +24 · US 10s2s +33 · gap 9bp. weekly: BoE wins if |UK-US − 10s2s| narrowed (US curve following the UK spread), Fed wins if it widened. correlation of daily levels: -0.18 before Mar 2025, 0.17 since.
UK-US 10y spread vs US 10s2s, bp
green ▲ = BoJ rate hikes (2024-03-19, 2024-07-31, 2025-01-24, 2025-12-19, 2026-06-16, 2026-09-18, from boj.or.jp statements). event labels: BoJ makes 1.0% a 10y reference cap (Oct 31 2023), BoJ ends YCC (Mar 19 2024). after tom luongo's chart; the battle is a framing of co-movement, not evidence of who causes what.