method: each sentence with a hawkish cue scores +1, a dovish cue −1; doc = 50 + 50·(H−D)/(H+D+2); gauge = weighted mean of the last 30 days (chair ×3, fomc statement ×3, governors ×2, minutes ×2). crowd read, not a signal. grey = fewer than 2 docs or nothing in 21 days.
cb speeches 35 · 18 banks
central bank speeches · last 14 days
27 in window + 8 latest-outside-window · 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-19 · official pages only · newest first
Oct 19 · ECBeuro area, not G7
Frank Elderson · Executive Board, ECB
From climate and nature risks to economic resilience and competitiveness
“We are responsible for maintaining price stability and safeguarding banks’ safety, soundness and financial stability.” said, not verified
official page → themes: financial stability · FX / currency · AI / productivity · energy
Oct 19 · Banca d'ItaliaEurosystem
Fabio Panetta · Governor, Banca d'Italia
Banca d'Italia - Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow: Building Resilience to Climate Shocks Today
“This year's conference focuses on navigating climate risks amid uncertainty, and the topic could hardly be timelier.” said, not verified
Financial innovation, dollar dominance and their UK monetary policy implications
“From a UK monetary policy perspective, the evidence we present from Anesti et al.” said, not verified
official page → (quote from the linked PDF) themes: rates path / cuts / holds · tariffs / trade · FX / currency · energy · funding / liquidity · fiscal dominance / debt sustainability · gold / reserves
Oct 15 · Fed BoardBoard governorblackout until Oct 29
Michelle W. Bowman · Vice Chair for Supervision
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on supervisory modernization after Silicon Valley Bank
“Frontline examiners, risk and surveillance specialists, and Reserve Bank and Board staff knew about SVB's exposure to interest rate and liquidity risk at least as early as nine full months before the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took the bank into receivership.” said, not verified
Speech by Board Member KOEDA in Kumamoto (Economic Activity, Prices, and Monetary Policy in Japan) : 日本銀行 Bank of Japan
“The Bank of Japan's nine Policy Board members indicate their respective forecasts for Japan's economic activity and prices at the Monetary Policy Meetings (MPMs) held in the month in which the Outlook Report is released.” said, not verified
official page → (quote from the linked PDF) themes: inflation persistence · labour market · balance sheet / QT · FX / currency · AI / productivity · energy · funding / liquidity
Oct 15 · Bank of EnglandG7
Victoria Cleland · title not stated on page
The importance of public engagement in maintaining trust in banknotes - Speech by Victoria Cleland
“Trust is essential to everything the Bank of England (the Bank) does.” said, not verified
Banca d'Italia - Intervento del Governatore Fabio Panetta al Development Committee (testo in inglese)
“Renewed disruptions to energy, fertilizers, and logistics have fuelled inflation, weakened confidence, and constrained consumption in 2026.” said, not verified
“For much of modern finance, risk management has rested on a simple but consequential assumption: with enough data, sufficient information about borrower behaviour, robust models and a solid understanding of historical patterns, banks can estimate the losses they may face with a reasonable degree of precision.” said, not verified
“This is a relevant factor for the ECB in determining the appropriate monetary policy stance.” said, not verified
official page → themes: labour market · financial stability · FX / currency · AI / productivity
Oct 13 · Boston FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29
Susan M. Collins · President, Boston Fed
Perspectives on the Economy and the Banking Landscape
“Inflation is notably above the Fed’s 2% inflation target and has been for five and a half years.” said, not verified
official page → (quote from the linked PDF) themes: rates path / cuts / holds · inflation persistence · labour market · tariffs / trade · AI / productivity · energy
Oct 12 · Cleveland FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29
Beth M. Hammack · President, Cleveland Fed
Trimming the Sails: Communicating My Reaction Function
“And it strikes me that the skills needed to manage these maritime changes are not unlike the skills we monetary policymakers must employ in our own work as we adjust to economic changes in real time.” said, not verified
official page → themes: inflation persistence · labour market · tariffs / trade · energy
Oct 9 · Boston FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29
Susan M. Collins · President, Boston Fed
Remarks at the Conference in Memory of John Leahy
“I’d like to begin my remarks with a few memories of John, before turning to some of the ways his work, as a macro theorist, has been quite impactful for thinking about monetary policy.” said, not verified
Oct 8 · Fed BoardBoard governorblackout until Oct 29
Christopher J. Waller · Governor
Speech by Governor Waller on the economic outlook
“As you know, in September the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise our policy rate 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent after nine months during which we held it steady.” said, not verified
official page → themes: rates path / cuts / holds · inflation persistence · labour market · energy
Oct 8 · Bank of EnglandG7
Andrew Bailey · Governor, Bank of England
Financial resilience in an age of repeated shocks - speech by Andrew Bailey
“The conflict in the Middle East has created major uncertainty about growth, inflation and interest rates.” said, not verified
official page → themes: financial stability · fiscal · AI / productivity · fiscal dominance / debt sustainability
Oct 7 · New York FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29
Athreya · Director of Research and Head of the Research and Statisti
The U.S. Economy: National & Regional Outlook - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK
Banca d'Italia - L'energia come leva della competitività: il ruolo del sistema finanziario
“These findings suggest that while rising deployment of weather-dependent renewables bring new challenges, well-designed systems with enough flexibility can mitigate volatility and maintain price stability even where renewables become dominant.” said, not verified
official page → (quote from the linked PDF) themes: rates path / cuts / holds · inflation persistence · labour market · tariffs / trade · FX / currency · AI / productivity · energy · funding / liquidity
Oct 6 · St. Louis FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29
Alberto G. Musalem · President, St. Louis Fed
Introductory Remarks: 2026 Community Banking Research Conference
“On behalf of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, we are proud to once again host the annual Community Banking Research Conference, now in its 14th year.” said, not verified
Oct 6 · Fed BoardBoard governorblackout until Oct 29
Michelle W. Bowman · Vice Chair for Supervision
Speech by Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman on modernizing regulation and supervision
“Later this year, the Board will consider updates to fixed-dollar asset thresholds in the Board's regulations to account for inflation and economic growth.” said, not verified
Money in the digital age: digital euro, tokenisation and the role of central banks
“The limits will have to be calibrated to balance three objectives: making the digital euro convenient to use, safeguarding financial stability and preserving the smooth implementation and transmission of monetary policy.” said, not verified
“European banking supervision is increasingly placing effectiveness and timely remediation of supervisory findings at the centre of its dialogue with banks.” said, not verified
“Taking these criteria in turn, the medium-term component of the inflation outlook plays a central role in setting the appropriate monetary policy. [ 2 ] With multiple shocks hitting the economy and playing out over different time horizons, a primary diagnostic task is to distil the medium-term component of inflation.” said, not verified
official page → themes: rates path / cuts / holds · inflation persistence · fiscal · FX / currency · AI / productivity · energy
Oct 5 · BundesbankEurosystem
Joachim Nagel · President, Bundesbank
Shifting Ground – How Geopolitics Is Reshaping Growth, Monetary Policy and the Role of Gold as a Reserve Asset
“It affects monetary policy, because geopolitical shocks influence inflation and the balance of risks central banks are faced with.” said, not verified
official page → themes: FX / currency · energy · funding / liquidity · gold / reserves
Oct 5 · Bank of EnglandG7
Manuel Sales · title not stated on page
More than a change of address: Reflections from previous part VIII transfers − speech by Manuel Sales
“We can see this in the important role they play in serving parts of the market that may otherwise be underserved.” said, not verified
Gian Luca Altimari · Directorate member, Banca d'Italia
Banca d'Italia - Gold between Continuity and Change
“In this environment, Banca d'Italia chose to preserve gold as a strategic component of its balance sheet, a policy that continues to this day.” said, not verified
Oct 2 · Dallas FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29latest, outside 14-day window (Oct 2)
Lorie K. Logan · President, Dallas Fed
Welcome remarks for the Fifth Annual Workshop on the Macroeconomic Implications of Migration
“This includes how both the postpandemic migration boom and the subsequent immigration restrictions influenced price stability and labor market dynamics directly relating to our monetary policy responsibilities.” said, not verified
Oct 2 · Banque de FranceEurosystemlatest, outside 14-day window (Oct 2)
Emmanuel Moulin · Governor of the Banque de France 2nd of October 2026
Marking our tenth anniversary: One conviction, two principles and three challenges | Banque de France
“Ten years after its creation, this Forum remains as relevant as ever: it serves as a space for dialogue between supervisors and players in the field of financial innovation.” said, not verified
Sep 24 · Philadelphia FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29latest, outside 14-day window (Sep 24)
Anna Paulson · President, Philadelphia Fed
Opening Remarks
“This year’s conference takes place against a backdrop of important economic developments, so I am going to begin by sharing my thoughts about the economic landscape and monetary policy.” said, not verified
Sep 18 · Kansas City FedRegional Fedblackout until Oct 29latest, outside 14-day window (Sep 18)
Jeffrey R. Schmid · President, Kansas City Fed
The Strategic Imperative of Instant Payments for Community Banks
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City covers a seven-state region, and conversations with bankers, business owners, and community leaders inform the perspective I bring to the discussion of monetary policy at the Federal Open Market Committee.” said, not verified
no item · Atlanta Fed: no official speech page in the last 60 days · San Francisco Fed: no official speech page in the last 60 days
one verbatim sentence per item, taken from the official text (a sentence with a policy word if there is one) and checked as an exact match against the page. said, not verified = it's what the speaker said, not a fact check. not opened = the page couldn't be fetched, so no quote.
USblackout now, quiet period Oct 17–Oct 29 (decision Oct 28) · rule · dates
CA next quiet period Oct 20–Oct 28 (decision Oct 28) · rule · dates
EA next quiet period Oct 21–Oct 29 (decision Oct 29) · rule · dates
UK next quiet period Oct 27–Nov 5 (decision Nov 5) · approx. · rule · dates
JP next quiet period Oct 27–Oct 30 (decision Oct 30) · rule · dates
themes x G7 + ECB · items whose verbatim text hits a theme 3+ times · shared theme = hit by items from 3+ of the 7 G7 countries (US, CA, UK, JP, DE, FR, IT). The ECB column is shown but never counts toward the threshold. Shared phrase = verbatim in speeches from 2+ G7 countries.
theme
US
CA
UK
JP
DE
FR
IT
ECB
G7 ctries
blackout
blackout
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
rates path / cuts / holds
2
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
3
shared
inflation persistence
3
0
0
1
0
0
1
2
3
shared
labour market
3
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
3
shared
tariffs / trade
2
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
3
shared
balance sheet / QT
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
financial stability
1
0
1
0
0
0
0
4
2
fiscal
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
2
FX / currency
0
0
2
1
1
0
1
5
4
shared
AI / productivity
1
0
1
1
0
0
3
5
4
shared
energy
3
0
1
1
1
0
3
4
5
shared
funding / liquidity
0
0
1
1
1
0
2
0
4
shared
fiscal dominance / debt sustainability
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
1
gold / reserves
0
0
1
0
1
0
1
0
3
shared
US United States (Fed Board + 12 regional Feds) · CA Canada (BoC) · UK United Kingdom (BoE) · JP Japan (BoJ) · DE Germany (Bundesbank) · FR France (Banque de France) · IT Italy (Banca d'Italia) · ECB ECB (euro-area institution, not a G7 country). cell = number of items whose own verbatim text hits the theme.
US in blackout since Oct 17: its counts come from speeches dated before Oct 17
same words, different countries · 3–5-word phrases found verbatim in speeches from 2+ G7 countries, shown as spoken; boilerplate removed: dropped if in more than 4% of 261 baseline speeches (2025-10-05 to 2026-10-04) or on the config stoplist
“global financial system” · 3 G7 countries (IT, UK, US) · 3 speeches · in 3.8% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: global financial system
Fed Board · Michelle W. Bowman: global financial system
“emerging and developing economies” (also: “emerging market and developing economies”) · 2 G7 countries (DE, IT) · 3 speeches · in 0.0% of baseline
Banca d'Italia · Fabio Panetta: emerging and developing economies
Banca d'Italia · Paolo Angelini: emerging market and developing economies
Bundesbank · Joachim Nagel: emerging and developing economies
“significant variation across” (also: “significant variations across”) · 2 G7 countries (IT, US) + ECB · 3 speeches · in 0.4% of baseline
ECB · Philip R. Lane: significant variation across
Boston Fed · Susan M. Collins: significant variation across
Banca d'Italia · Paolo Angelini: significant variations across
“effective exchange rate indices” · 2 G7 countries (JP, UK) · 2 speeches · in 0.0% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: effective exchange rate indices
Bank of Japan · Junko Koeda: effective exchange rate indices
“economic outlook for monetary policy” (also: “economic outlook, and monetary policy”) · 2 G7 countries (DE, US) · 2 speeches · in 3.8% of baseline
Cleveland Fed · Beth M. Hammack: economic outlook, and monetary policy
Bundesbank · Joachim Nagel: economic outlook for monetary policy
“strengthen confidence in the central bank's” (also: “strengthens confidence in the central bank's”) · 2 G7 countries (DE, IT) · 2 speeches · in 0.0% of baseline
Bundesbank · Joachim Nagel: strengthen confidence in the central bank's
Banca d'Italia · Gian Luca Altimari: strengthens confidence in the central bank's
“important contribution to understanding” (also: “vital contribution to our understanding”) · 2 G7 countries (UK, US) · 2 speeches · in 0.0% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: important contribution to understanding
St. Louis Fed · Alberto G. Musalem: vital contribution to our understanding
“foreign exchange reserves” · 2 G7 countries (DE, UK) · 2 speeches · in 0.4% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: foreign exchange reserves
Bundesbank · Joachim Nagel: foreign exchange reserves
“dollar's convertibility to gold” (also: “dollar's convertibility into gold”) · 2 G7 countries (DE, UK) · 2 speeches · in 0.0% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: dollar's convertibility to gold
Bundesbank · Joachim Nagel: dollar's convertibility into gold
“bretton woods system” · 2 G7 countries (DE, UK) · 2 speeches · in 0.4% of baseline
“international monetary system” · 2 G7 countries (DE, UK) · 2 speeches · in 1.1% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: international monetary system
Bundesbank · Joachim Nagel: international monetary system
“role in the global financial” · 2 G7 countries (IT, UK) · 2 speeches · in 1.1% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: role in the global financial
Banca d'Italia · Fabio Panetta: role in the global financial
“changes in exchange rates” (also: “changes of the exchange rate”) · 2 G7 countries (JP, UK) · 2 speeches · in 0.4% of baseline
Bank of England · Catherine L. Mann: changes of the exchange rate
Bank of Japan · Junko Koeda: changes in exchange rates
dropped as boilerplate (38): play important role (in 11.9% of baseline speeches), conflict middle east (in 20.3% of baseline speeches), consumer price index (in 14.2% of baseline speeches), monetary policy financial (config stoplist), government bond yield (config stoplist), federal fund rate (in 24.5% of baseline speeches), global financial crisis (in 21.8% of baseline speeches), labor market condition (in 13.8% of baseline speeches), higher energy price (in 11.1% of baseline speeches), monetary policy implication (in 10.7% of baseline speeches), implication monetary policy (in 10.0% of baseline speeches), monetary policy decision (in 9.6% of baseline speeches), short-term interest rate (in 8.8% of baseline speeches), outlook monetary policy (in 8.8% of baseline speeches) …
outside window · latest speech for banks with none in the 14 days; shown in the feed but NOT counted above