| # | country | this wk | 4 wks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ITALY | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| 2 | GERMANY | 2-0 | 5-3 |
| 3 | FRANCE | 0-2 | 1-7 |
FR-DE = FR-IT + IT-DE (spreads lock together): 147.3 ≈ 35.5 + 111.8 = 147.3 bp
W-L from the three battle charts (FR-DE, IT-DE, FR-IT); each country plays two pairs a week.
a win means the spread narrowed: the market wants less extra yield for holding that country's bonds, so it sees less risk. Italy leads because its gaps keep narrowing, not because it pays least, since Germany still pays least.