Gasoline futures vs CPI 4-month change

gasoline 3.10 (Oct 19), +2.8% over 4 months. CPI moved +0.69% over the 4 months to Sep 2026. since 2016, gasoline's 4-month change lines up best with CPI's 1 month later (correlation 0.52; same month 0.40).

RBOB gasoline futures, monthly close ($/gal)

CPI, 4-month change (%, not annualized)

running lead/lag tracker →

watching Tom's idea that gasoline leads CPI (his 'gasoline futures vs 4 month CPI increase' panel). a lead in the past isn't a forecast.

RBOB = NYMEX front-month gasoline futures (yahoo RB=F), daily pull plus monthly history; CPI = FRED CPIAUCSL (seasonally adjusted), 4-month change = CPI ÷ CPI 4 months earlier − 1. the gap in late 2025 is real: BLS published no October 2025 CPI (shutdown), so 4-month changes that need it are left blank.